The Company in a Nutshell
- Duke is one of the largest U.S. utilities with operations in the Midwest, Florida, and the Carolinas. Duke offers an attractive yield for income seekers, while not making unsustainable promises. Duke has successfully increased its payouts for 17 consecutive years.
| Date Reviewed | 02/21/2026 |
| Company Name | Duke Energy Corp |
| Symbol | DUK |
| Sector | Utilities |
| Industry | Utilities - Regulated Electric |
| Beta | 0.45 |
| PRO Rating | 4 |
| Dividend Safety | 3 |
Business Model
| Current price | 130.92 |
| ROE | 9.80 % |
| ROIC | 4.45 % |
| Shareholder Yield | 0.85 % |
| 5-Yr Total Return | 65.00 % |
| 1-Yr Total Return | 11.95 % |
| Next Earnings Date | 05-04-26 |
Latest Quarter Information
What the CEO said:
The fourth quarter marked a strong finish to a productive year, where we met every financial goal, progressed our economic development pipeline, broke ground on 5 gigawatts of new dispatchable generation resources, and continued to deliver value for customers. The cost of energy has always been and will remain a key focus for our company. We continue to find new ways to deliver affordable energy for our customers, keeping our rates below the national average and rate changes below inflation. We enter 2026 with incredible momentum. The fundamentals of our business have never been stronger, and we operate in some of the most attractive jurisdictions in the nation.
What we say:
2026-02-21, DUK gave mixed results for 4Q'25. Revenue growth was primarily driven by the Electric Utilities and Infrastructure segment ($6.99B vs. $6.62B in 4Q'24) as regulated electric revenues rose, and Gas Utilities and Infrastructure was higher ($0.98B vs. $0.78B) as regulated natural gas revenues increased. EPS fell due to higher O&M, higher interest expense, and higher depreciation on a growing asset base, plus higher contributions to the Duke Energy Foundation and a higher effective tax rate. DUK highlightd an expanded $103B five-year capital plan. It introduced 2026 AEPS guidance of $6.55-$6.80 and extended its long-term AEPS growth rate target of 5%-7% through 2030.
Investment Thesis
Duke Energy (DUK) is a prime investment for conservative or retirement portfolios seeking sustainable income and stable dividend growth, underpinned by a reliable utility business model and supportive regulation that allows for clockwork rate increases, especially given its large capital expenditure pipeline. The company is strategically positioned to capitalize on growing energy demand driven by factors like AI infrastructure and population growth, while actively executing a transition to cleaner energy through expanding its renewable portfolio and securing key clean energy supply agreements with tech giants like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. After shedding non-regulated assets, the story is straightforward: earn allowed returns on an $100B+ capex plan to modernize the grid, add gas, nuclear and renewables, and meet a demand boom from data centers and electrification. Management targets 5–7% EPS growth through 2030 and introduced 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.55 to $6.80. Duke's big multi-year capital plan is tied to grid upgrades, reliability, and generation transition, that tends to translate into “slow and steady” dividend growth.
Playbook: Duke’s revenue is almost entirely from regulated utilities with state-approved rates. It’s investing about $103B through 2030 in transmission, distribution, generation additions and storm hardening, and has flagged additional capacity needs tied to AI/data centers. This capex is the engine for rate base expansion and earnings growth.
Growth Vectors: Load growth in the Carolinas and Florida, plus multi-GW power purchase and interconnection agreements with data center operators, support outsized demand. Duke also plans incremental gas capacity and is evaluating next-gen nuclear as coal exits, broadening the runway for long-duration, regulated projects.
Economic Moat: A classic regulated-monopoly moat: exclusive service territories, high switching costs for customers, and state-approved returns on prudently incurred investments. Duke’s scale and diversified footprint across fast-growing Southeast markets reinforce bargaining power in rate cases and procurement.
Dividend Triangle
| 5-Yr Rev. Growth | 6.45 % |
| 5-Yr EPS Growth | 29.20 % |
| 5-Yr Div Growth | 1.90 % |
Potential Risks
Despite Duke Energy's impressive $103 billion capital expenditure budget through 2030 focusing on grid modernization and clean energy transition, the massive spending plan introduces significant financing risks, requiring substantial borrowing or new equity issuance. While DUK plans to finance this through regulated rate increases, this strategy faces headwinds: negative free cash flow signals internal stress, and cost overruns, exemplified by the terminated Atlantic Coast Pipeline (ACP), will pressure near-term earnings growth. Furthermore, current inflationary pressures and rising interest rates pose a growing concern, as a slowing economy could limit favorable outcomes in rate cases and increase DUK's overall financing burden.
Business Vulnerabilities: Storm exposure is meaningful across the Southeast. 2024’s storm season produced multi-billion-dollar restoration costs; while much is recoverable, timing matters and can dent interim results and credit metrics. The business is capital intensive.
Industry & Market Threats: Prolonged high interest rates compress allowed-ROE spread over funding costs. Policy shifts on gas or nuclear could elongate timelines or strand capital. If load growth moderates, regulators may scrutinize new build plans more tightly.
Competitive Landscape: Primary competitors are other large regulated peers for investor capital—NextEra, Southern, Dominion, AEP, Exelon. Relative performance will hinge on regulatory outcomes, execution of capex, balance-sheet discipline and storm management.
| Debt/Equity | 1.75 |
| Financial Debt to EBITDA (TTM) | 5.50 |
| Current Ratio (Quarterly) | 0.55 |
| Credit Score | 58 |
Dividend Growth Perspective
Duke is an example of stability with consecutive dividend increases since 2007. When you look at both the payout and the cash payout ratios, you can understand why the company can’t afford to increase its dividend in a more substantial manner. However, the company is well-positioned to continue paying its dividend and offer a modest increase each year. In 2023, the company increased its dividend by 2%, from $1.005 to $1.025/share. The utility offered a similar increase in 2024, bringing the dividend to $1.045/share, and to $1.07/ share in 2025.
| Dividend ($) | 4.26 |
| Dividend Yield Fwd | 3.25 % |
| Dividend Frequency | Quarterly |
| Average 5-Yr Yield | 3.90 % |
| Payout Ratio (%) | 67.00 |
| Cash Payout Ratio (%) | -197.35 |
| DGR 1-Yr (TTM) | 1.45 |
| DGR 3-Yr (TTM) | 1.80 |
| DGR 5-Yr (TTM) | 1.90 |
| DGR Streak | 19 |
| Chowder Score | 5.15 |
| Next DVD PMT | 03-16-26 |
Valuation
| Recent Annual Dividend Payment | $ 4.28 |
| Expected Dividend Growth Rate Years 1-10 | 3.00% |
| Expected Terminal Dividend Growth Rate | 4.00% |
| Discount Rate | 9.00% |
| Discount Rate (Horizontal) | |||
| Margin of Safety | 8.00% | 9.00% | 10.00% |
| 20% Premium | $ 123.07 | $ 98.76 | $ 82.54 |
| 10% Premium | $ 112.81 | $ 90.53 | $ 75.66 |
| Intrinsic Value | $ 102.56 | $ 82.30 | $ 68.79 |
| 10% Discount | $ 92.30 | $ 74.07 | $ 61.91 |
| 20% Discount | $ 82.04 | $ 65.84 | $ 55.03 |
Video Tutorial: How to Read the Stock Cards DDM Valuation
| Market Cap | 102 B |
| PE Ratio | 20.70 |
| Fwd PE | 19.20 |
| Price to Book Ratio | 1.95 |
| DDM Valuation | 82.3 |
| Average 5-Yr PE | 22.98 |
| Value Score | 59 |